AKG weekly charts - Issue #116
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
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[1] Brent crude prices breached the USD 94/bl mark after OPEC’s prediction of supply constraints in the oil market, estimating an oil deficit of 3.3mn barrels (mbpd) while IEA estimated a moderate 1.1 mbpd deficit during Q3FY24. Expect Crude prices to remain elevated in the near term.
[2] Fed decided unanimously to keep the benchmark fund rate in the range of 5.25% - 5.5%; pausing one of the sharpest hike cycles in the past four decades. Beginning in March 2022, the Fed has hiked the rates 11 times to the highest since 2001.
[3] Foreign holdings of US equities is at all time high amid a secular rising trend. When US sneezes, world catches a cold!
[4] Reliance on imported energy, especially crude petroleum, has been one of the weakest aspects of the Indian economy for the past many decades. Though we have made significant progress in the adoption of renewable and clean sources of energy, about 70% of our primary energy demand is still met by coal and crude oil. Renewable energy meets less than 5% of the primary energy and is mostly replacing traditional biomass in the overall primary energy mix.
[5] Jewelry retailers have seen a relatively higher recovery than other discretionary categories (over pre-pandemic levels, FY20)
Source : Emkay research
[6] Indian EMS companies, though overvalued, provide higher EBITDA margins over its global counterparts. Given the potential growth path, at what point do they become attractive again?
[7] As US 10yr hits 4.5% and the Fed narrative higher for longer stays continues, bonds are now the most expensive in 70yrs.
[8] Bitcoin time and price correction is about to get over if one follows the historical price trends.
[9] Foreign ownership of India GSecs have been directionally easing over the last few years. Will this change now with the latest inclusion of Indian bonds being included in MSCI global indices?
[10] For fun: “How much more pain from rising bond yields can equities now tolerate?," SG's Albert Edwards asks as US 10y bond yields have risen > global equity yield and Edwards continues: "Maybe none.”
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas