AKG weekly charts - Issue #119
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Summary of financial markets in last week (23-27 Oct) here
Connect on various social media platforms here
Media Interaction with News9 in last week here
Print media quotes here (rally in media stocks) and here (SEBI clamp down on FFs)
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[1] This is a nightmare for EM as bonds erase risk premmium and makes developed markets (DM) bonds more attractive. We have already seen 3bn$ selling in Indian equities in Aug and Sept, will bond also join in this selling?
[2] When GoI cash balances swing from surplus to deficit, banking liquidity goes the other direction. Our new gauge for GoI balances showing seasonal factors are likely to ensure a large surplus until Feb, keeping liquidity tight. This is likely to rule out RBI bond sales until then. [h/t: BBG economics]
[3] Across 427 active funds, 95% of their AUM is invested in 382 stocks. 80% in just 178 stocks. The portfolio universe could potentially be another 30-50% higher than 382 stocks and constantly changing. In a best case scenario, 600 stocks are being considered to be actually investible by MFs.
Source : @Uptickr on X
[4] We are currently witnessing the greatest Treasury bear market in history of US (data going back 250 years). Contrary to the popular opinion, the topping of yields is driven not by topping of inflation but “flight to safety” (and a move to Gold and Bitcoin)
[5] The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path warns the IMF which projects the U.S. deficit to be 'elevated and persistent.'
And Janet Yellen in her dream world says rising yields are due to stronger economy and not larger deficits (see here). Do central bankers forget economics when turned into politicians?
[6] Property registrations in Mumbai has held up well despite stamp duty waivers coming off, high interest rates and rising prices. Is this the new normal?
[7] Credit card defaults in US are rising at levels NEVER seen in 3 decades, even worse than global financial crisis, thanks to rising interest rates. If the retail is so stressed, the strength in economy and financial markets can also come off very quickly, isn’t it?
[8] Gold sees its first weekly inflow since May as it hits $2000 after consolidating for many months between 1700-1850$. Will the flight of safety continue stretching it to new life time highs? (The Hamas war may hold the cue in the coming weeks!)
[9] Electronic goods have caught up with Drugs and Pharmaceuticals share in the export pie of India. Just shows how much we have come up since Covid under PLI and Aatmnirbhar initiatives. Stock valuations not cheap in EMS space but a long term theme is developing over the next decade.
[10] India has been witnessing a sharp drop in the level of female foeticide; a sign of social progress. The educational initiatives via various media outlets have been working well in the past few years. We now need more reforms to increase female participation in workforce.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas