AKG weekly charts - Issue #120
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Wishing all newsletter readers a joyous Diwali. May the new Samvat 2080 be propitious for everyone - full of peace, prosperity and pleasures. We will be taking a break for the next week. Next edition will be published on 20th Nov, 2023.
Summary of financial markets in last week (30 Oct-3 Nov) here
Oct’23 review of FC Strategies - Special Situation and Wealth Compounder
Media Interaction with News9 in last week here
[1] This is THE most unaffordable US housing market. And it keeps getting worse!
[2] 4G data usage in India is the highest globally and has risen exponentially over the last five years.
Source: UBS
[3] Emerging Market stocks have fallen to their lowest valuation relative to U.S. stocks in 52 years. Time for some inflows as Dollar index corrects!
[4] Private Client allocation to cash + treasury bills is at its highest level in almost 14 years in US. Could potentially be a tailwind for stocks if there is a rotation of capital back into the equity markets specially during year-end when markets are oversold!
[5] Most Indian investors only want to own US stocks, and even then most only want tech because they turned in the best returns historically… but all good students of macro and markets and all those with a longer-term focus will know that these things move in cycles. And the current cycle of US vs global relative outperformance is long in the tooth compared to previous cycles.
h/t Topdown charts
We have recently initiated a new position in our Special Situation Strategy. For equity research services, visit: www.fintrekkcapital.com
This clean energy company is involved in the manufacturing, EPC, and O&M of the renewables that has a total manufacturing capacity of over 2GW. The company is aggressively raising funds via various options to reduce debt, deleverage balance sheet and becoming debt-free by FY25. Various special situation corporate actions have/expected to happen in FY24. We believe the company can play a pivotal role as India moves towards its capacity addition commitments with renewed thrust.
[6] Brent prices are seen averaging below $90/bbl over the next four quarters despite risk of supply disruption due to Isreal-Hamas war.
[7] The effective interest rates in emerging markets which have been highest in a decade may get some respite next year as Fed take the foot off the pedal!
[8] The fiscal state of US continues to deteriorate as % of GDP reaches a critical point ahead of 2024 Presidential elections. Loose Fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy has been the norm till now but can it reverse next year?
[9] Opportunities for wind energy is immense in the coming decade as most PSUs ramp up renewable capacities and providing orders to the companies in this space.
[10] India has the third most thriving startup econsystem in the world. Chart shows no of unicorns by country.
Source: UBS
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Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas