AKG weekly charts - Issue #122
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Summary of financial markets in last week (27 Nov-1 Dec) here
Nov’23 review of FC Strategy - Special Situation
[1] Dollar Index tend to give the most negative average monthly change in December. Already Dollar index has corrected ~400 bps in the last few weeks. EMs will love this!
[2] China's imports of thermal coal in November are poised to surge to the second-highest monthly total this year, helping drive prices higher for the grades most commonly sought by the world's biggest buyer of the power station fuel.
[3] Americans’ collective credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in Q2 2023. After a sharp contraction in the first year of the pandemic, credit card balances have experienced seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth. The average household credit card balance is now over $10k. All izz well!
[4] Coal power continues to expand in China, despite the government’s pledges and goals. Decarbonisation requires substantial changes in network infrastructure, market mechanisms, regulatory framework, and planning processes, which require central government facilitation.
PS : Invest with us in Clean energy investment Smallcase [click here]
[5] US is importing more from Mexico than China now - the rejig of supply chains in post-Covid, Post-RU war continues gradually
[6] Oil headed for a fourth weekly loss after sinking into a bear market as signs of healthy supplies and rising stockpiles offset attempts by OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep declines in check
[7] A boom in clean power electricity generation has helped push Europe's forward power prices to their lowest levels since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 severed natural gas pipeline flows and sent the region's power prices surging.
Base wholesale fair value power prices in Germany and France, the region's two largest economies, currently average around 102 and 105 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) respectively for the first quarter of 2024, according to LSEG.
[8] EM stocks are at 50 year lows relative to US stocks. Over any short time these divergences wont necessarily close, but if you are saving on a multi-decade horizon, it seems pretty clear that a lot more value is in EM vs. US. Note also the story is true with or w/o China stocks.
[9] Over 60% of global electricity generated so far in 2023 was produced by fossil fuels, despite the ongoing aggressive roll-out of renewable energy sources in every major economy.
[10] In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
Investors frantically bid up the price of Treasuries, agency and mortgage debt, sparking the best month since the 1980s and igniting a powerful pan-markets rally in everything from stocks to credit to emerging markets.
Avail 20% discount to access all plans on SS Smallcase here
Connect on various social media platforms here
Subscribe (free) to #AKGweekendreadings here [released every weekend]
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas