AKG weekly charts - Issue #126
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
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Dec’23 review of FC Strategies - Emerging leaders, Special Situation and Wealth compounders
[1] The US is now history's biggest oil producer as output continues to surge to all-time levels, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Output of crude and condensate hit a new global record this quarter of 13.3 mbpd. That's part of a record 21.4 mbpd for total US liquids production.
[2] Six months of inversion. Recession occurs 12-18m forward. So another 3-6m of bull market to continue before market develop worries?
[3] Past 3 decades have been an era of overall peace and prosperity. However, logistic challenges and geopolitical developments in the past 3 years are threatening to reverse the trend as inflation shot up. The question to examine is whether we are going to witness geopolitics and political ambitions triumph the globalization based on the principle of economic efficiency; or it’s just a passing phase.
[4] In 2022, a record 9.12 million elderly people (>80) held jobs, up 30,000 from the previous year and breaking the record for 19 consecutive years, according to the Labor Force Survey in Japan. Workholics has a new meaning!
[5] FM has been most bullish bonds in US as 10yr yields have corrected from 5% to 4%. With rate cuts expected, further slide to 3.2-3.3% possible in H2CY24.
[6] Fed's forecast of slower GDP growth next year implied a 90% probability of recession. Inflation to plummet below 1% next year, making 3.8% nominal growth "very difficult to achieve" and closer to 2% more realistic.
[7] Who said politics and business are not intererconnected is living in a fool’s paradise! Keeping the national sentiments in check, Maldives trip may become reasonable (read : possibly cheaper) in coming days!
[8] Rural wage growth in India on the upswing despite tough monsoon, thanks to government MNREGA activities.
Source : Morgan Stanley
[9] Copper prices have begun to ease again as China slowdown sentiment still dominates.
[10] Global Container Shipping Rates have surged 122% since the November 30th low. Not many equity investors are paying attention to this!
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas