AKG weekly charts - Issue #130
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Summary of financial markets in last week here.
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[1] Despite three countries (Germany, Japan and UK) recession data dominated headlines in last week, the google searches of the word ‘recession’ has completely fallen off the radar. Signs of bull euphoria?
[2] US Financial Stress Indicator falls to lowest level in almost 3 years.
[3] Black Swan ETFs in US have plunged 99% after doomsday dream scenario fails to play out.
[4] US population grew +3.8M in 2023 - the largest one-year increase in US history. The surge is likely short-lived as its almost all from immigration, which is conditional on policy, legislation, regulations, etc. Even so, the surge will have important ripple effects for year through housing, the economy, and the rest of society.
[5] Rate cuts might be the final nail in the coffin for the market, if and when it finally happens if one go by historic parameters. It’s still 4-6 months before all rate cuts gets priced in.
[6] S&P Long 7 is the most crowded trade. Will rate cuts in US trigger a rally across broader markets while benchmark indices take a breather?
[7] Last week, the National Statistical Office (NSO) in India released the outcome of the latest Annual Survey of Industries (2021-2022). The survey results provide important insights into the current state of the Indian industry. Some key highlights of the survey results are as follows….
[8] Self-reliance in the defense sector has been one of the major investment themes in the past 2yrs. Besides dedicated public sector defense manufacturers, the stocks of many equipment and service providers to the Indian defense establishments have seen a sharp upmove and investors are buying at any price [see detailed note here]
[9] Despite all the rhetoric, the % of Chinese stocks in Global holdings haven’t moved much over last two years. China+1, huh?
[10] Fascinating how intricate market dynamics can unveil profound insights into economic relationships. The unprecedented negative correlation between Small Cap Stocks and Interest Rates (in US atleast) certainly reflects the depths of financial intricacies at play.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas