AKG weekly charts - Issue #133
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Summary of financial markets in last week here.
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Feb’24 review of our equity research strategies - Emerging leaders & Special Situation
[1] With the decline in Dollar, EM risk pricing index is now back to pre-covid lows. Positive for EM risk assets.
[2] Collapse in trucking employment has been a precursor to recessions since 1991. Will this time it be different?
[3] Ackman has postulated that an increase in Bitcoin’s price could lead to more mining activity. This, in turn, would drive up energy consumption, causing a rise in energy costs and inflation, which could devalue the Dollar and further increase demand for Bitcoin. A strong technical breakout in Bitcoin above ATHs happened last week. More gains likely in coming days. But watchout for mining stocks!
[4] Americans spent >$1.1tn on interest payments alone last quarter. Nearly half of that spending was not on mortgages as higher rates from Fed are hitting on credit card or car loan debt. The "effective" rate on outstanding mortgage debt sits at just 3.8%, far below the 6.9% that new homebuyers are facing on avg for 30y fixed-rate mortgage BUT credit card rates have jumped from <15% on average in Feb2022 to nearly 21.5%.
[5] China re-routing exports to the US via South East Asia since start of ‘Trump Tariffs’. If Trump comes back as the US President in Nov-2024, we are likely to see another bout of strong geopolitics.
[6] India’s urban consumption has changed its monthly expenditure preferences in the last decade from food to non-food items signifying pickup in discretionary consumption.
[7] How NRI's are taxed on their mutualfund investments in India. A good snapshot from Live mint. For countries like UAE, Mauritius and Singapore, there is no tax (Singapore needs repatriation)
[8] How liquid are the portfolios of small cap mutual funds?
If the funds get redemption pressure, in how many days can the fund managers liquidate all the stocks in the portfolio and get the money back?
Source : ICRA
[9] Performance of Top 500 AMFI basket of stocks (starting as on March 2020) till 26th Feb 2024
Source : DSP Netra
[10] Global wheat trade has looked a little different since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reducing both Ukrainian production and exports. It is still trading at less than 10yr average.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information and educational purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future or existing position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance on charts may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas