AKG Weekly Charts - Issue #82
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
Welcome to the first edition of the #AKGweeklycharts for 2023.
May Shri Thakur ji fulfill all our desires and bless us with divine bliss. Wishing everyone happy new year and a brilliant 2023!
2022 has been a pretty exciting year for us at Fintrekk Capital since inception, launching our equity based subscription offerings on our website and across Smallcase strategies. We have published a review of the financial markets in 2022 and an investment outlook and strategy for 2023. You can read it here
Do send comments to improve, and spread the word if you like reading it!
[1] Rs 1,49,507 crore GST Revenue collected for December 2022, record increase of 15% Year-on-Year. Monthly GST revenues more than Rs 1.4 lakh crore for 10 straight months in a row in India. (Source : Ministry of Finance)
[2] The Fed is over-reacting in December 2022 just like it was under-reacting in December 2021. The rhetoric is hawkish while markets wait for the dovish tone. But will it come with a pain wave in the markets?
[3] The Google searches for ‘insurance’ has gone up with recent variants of Covid hitting the headlines. The sector has underperformed over last 3years. Will 2023 will be any different? (Source : Ambit Capital)
We have launched a non-lending financials thematic strategy. Use code ‘FC2023’ to get 23% discount across all plans for a limited period of time. For investing in our smallcase, refer details here
[4] The capital gains tax regime across asset classes and durations is very complex in India. It’s a matter of time before this is corrected. Budget 2023 may be a good starting point to rationalize these slabs.
[5] Option trading is growing exponentially. 80% of this is now dominated by Prop accounts and Retail which in turn means the leverage under these two segments are likely to be a major factor in market moves from now on. We have seen evidence of this in 2022 - Market holding up despite FII selling and Retail/prop leverage bringing in sharp downmoves (like the one in Dec-22)
[6] The world has NEVER seen any monetary tightening like this. In the bid of controlling inflation, growth has been put on a back pedestal with recession-like conditions expected. Interestingly, equity valuations still not sufficiently reflecting this in many of the global market indices.
[7] Existing home sales are now just a fraction above Covid lows and the worst since 2011. No buyers. Sellers holding out. No one wants to move. Total freeze in the US housing market. Inactivity can lead to a stampede later on? [Source : NAHB]
[8] For first time EVER in US, there are more People Living Alone than Households with a Child. Two trends are clear for the near term - Nuclear families are here to stay and pain in housing market to continue for CY2023. These trends usually don’t reverse quickly
[9] Trends in Non-Defence R&D by function at historic highs. The indenigisation of weapons can be a multi-year theme in this decade in India. The market opportunity is clear. The only risk comes from the government making payments on time to ensure smooth working capital cycle.
We have recommended two stocks in Defence sector in the last few months under FC wealth compounders strategy. Both have a ‘BUY’ recommendation. One can access them by being a paid subscriber and check all the details here
[10] Younger consumers continue to gravitate towards gaming and music. The trend of music streaming and esports is likely to stay for longer. Valuations more saner!
Given the high potential sector of online gaming in India, this is on our radar. We are waiting more clarification on the GST to initiate a stock position!
[FYI : Twitter has decided to shut down Revue soon. We have shifted to Substack and have imported all posts and subscribers here. If you are an existing subscriber, then nothing is required to be done as you will continue to receive the newsletter. If you have not subscribed yet to the newsletter, use the below button to get it directly into your inbox every Monday morning]
Hope you enjoyed reading this edition!
Till the next time, stay safe and have a great week ahead!
If you have any feedback that you’d like to share, simply reply to this email or leave a comment below.
Connect on various social media platforms here
Subscribe to (free) AKG weekend readings newsletter here
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas.