AKG weekly charts - Issue #96
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
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[1] Powell's curve plunges to new lows, flashing US recession warning. Research from Fed has argued that comparing forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with current yield on 3mth bill was most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction.
[2] First Republic has a 2.7% risk of default in the coming 12 months and Western Alliance 1.1%, based on a range of metrics including stock moves & balance sheets. The 2 banks saw the biggest deterioration in creditworthiness over the past 30 days, Bloomberg credit monitor shows.
[3] Bank run in slow motion continues: Since the Fed began to raise rates in March 2022, total deposit outflows from the US banking sector is now $967.5bn, almost $1trn, the biggest outflow on record. (via Apollo)
[4] German Power Prices have dropped 86% from ATH but still three times as high as the historical average shortly before the last three nuclear power plants are closed.
[5] Global food costs mark 1 year of drops, at odds with inflation. UN FAO’s global food index drops to the lowest since July 2021 BUT there is still little sign it's actually feeding through to grocery shelve
[6] Global economy set for years of weak growth, IMF chief Georgieva warns. World to expand at avg annual rate of ~3% over next 5yrs, well below avg 3.8% of past 2 decades, & weakest projection for medium-term growth since 1990. But IMF not good at forecasting.
[7] Average cash levels in a Bank of America survey of fund managers witnessed its first %m/m increase since Oct'22 and the largest, since Sep'22.
[8] Indian insurance companies have moved strongly towards long-term government debt over the last few years.
[9] Gold ETF holdings have not risen in line with the recent rally seen in gold.
[10] India’s exports are seeing a sharp increase in to the European Union (EU). Europe +1 gaining traction?
Source: Morgan Stanley
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas.