AKG weekly charts - Issue #97
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
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[1] The concentrated nature of last quarter’s US stock market rally is evident that three stocks, Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft, contributed to 54% of the gains in the S&P500. And the top 10 stocks accounted for more than 95% of the gain. Precise opposite to what worked in 2022 (Tech to energy to Tech). Source : Jefferies Greed & Fear report.
[2] ACWI (after hours Tech chart) index in US has been performing better than in hours NASDAQ showing that most of the gains are coming in gap ups (and not necessarily during intraday trading)
[3] More than 40% of manufacturing firms in Germany complain about a lack of qualified employees, twice as many comps as in France. Shortage of skilled workers is a drag on economic growth.
[4] US Dollar fell to 58.4% of known 4Q global reserves, the lowest level since 1995, due to Dollar weakness in Q4 and as the confiscation of Russia's central bank reserves and potential plans to use them to help Ukraine cut the dollar's attractiveness.
[5] Middle east leading the renewable energy capacity addition in the world where oil is becoming a hot geopolitical capacity.
We have initiated a stock position this morning playing a 3-way demerger in a solution provider company under our Fintrekk Capital Special Situation product.
The company is expected to achieve revenue/EBITDA of INR250–300bn/INR24–27bn by 2026 from EBITDA of INR15bn in FY22. Should this happen, it would translate to a CAGR of 16% at the upper end of the company’s EBITDA guidance.
A research report is now available for subscribers on the dashboard.
[6] Given China is the second largest economy in the world, it has massive foreign exchange reserves but little gold reserves relative to total reserves, it’s the proverbial elephant in the gold market. We often see long periods of no purchases and then a sudden large increase in reserves, which suggests they mostly buy by stealth. Keep pressure on dedollarization.
[7] Greed takes over the last week with The SentimentMood indicator showing around 52% in the Greed+ Extreme Greed portion and an overall 77% stocks in the green. While the bias still remains negative, another week of greed could mean a change in trend. Source : Modular capital
[8] India’s global share of services exports have risen and is expected to move up further, even as India’s export market share in goods is expected to remain soft.
[9] Higher oil prices leads to higher remittances in India though arguable macro impact is apparently there.
[10] The volume of real time digital payments have seen a sharp increase in India during 2022, thanks to the super success of UPI and credit card transactions.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas.