AKG weekly charts - Issue #99
This newsletter is a weekly selection of 10 charts hand-picked across the internet which pertains to our investment strategy and bring an updated insight and perspective.
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[1] The strong start to CY23 for Asia's imports of crude oil came to a halt in April, with arrivals dropping to a seven-month low as top buyers China and India trimmed purchases.
[2] Buy the dip trend seen across various asset classes in US despite all the troubles in regional banks and Fed hiking rates by 25bps each in March and May.
[3] Besides hiking the policy repo rate, RBI also enforced correction in banking system liquidity to check the demand side pressures on inflation over last year. The banking system liquidity that was running in excess of rupees eight trillion a year ago, has been completely neutralized now.
[4] In FY23, the overall bank credit grew from Rs118.9trillion to Rs136.8trn, registering a growth of 15%, highest since 2014. Though some moderation in credit growth has been seen in the past one quarter, it is still expected to stay higher in the coming quarters.
[5] The fall in Nifty premium over EM has been on expected lines given the outperformance in 9MCY22. Now that price correction is done, can we complete a round of time correction too to allow markets to move forward?
[6] The debt quality index as calculated by CARE ratings has been on a steady rise since Covid pandemic hit despite all the troubles in repayment. The debt cycle is still not broken down if one assumes integrity in the ratings.
[7] The growth in personal income tax has been far higher relative to corporate tax collections. In FY12 personal tax collection amounted to 53% of corporate taxes. The proportion of personal tax relative to corporate taxes has just seen a dip in last FY as corporate taxes have zoomed up.
[8] In FY23, the sales of passenger vehicles in India seems to have reached an all-time high of 3.9mn units, recovering fully from the Covid induced slow down in the previous two financial years. In the next three years the sale of passenger vehicles in India is estimated to cross half a million mark. Two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales have been slow to recover. These are expected to reach their all-time high levels in FY24e [see our note here]
[9] US job gains and wages pick up, really not the direction the Fed wanted to see things. US economy adds 253k jobs in April vs 185k exp, showing labor mkt resilience. Unemployment rate declined to historic low 3.4%, & monthly wage gains accelerated to fastest rate since July. Fed to hike more or go on pause in June?
[10] Germany factory orders fall most since pandemic as manufacturing continues to fare worse than other parts of Europe’s largest economy. March orders cratered 10.7% vs -2.3% expected. Slump was particularly pronounced in car industry.
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for information purposes only. In this material, Amit Kumar Gupta (SEBI registered Research Analyst, INH100009327) has used information that is publicly available and is believed to be from reliable sources. While utmost care has been exercised, the author does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. Readers, before acting on any information herein should make their own investigation & seek appropriate professional advice. Any sector(s)/ stock(s)/ issuer(s) mentioned do not constitute any recommendation and the RA may or may not have any future position in these. All opinions/ figures/ charts/ graphs are as on date of publishing (or as at mentioned date) and are subject to change without notice. Any logos used may be trademarks™ or registered® trademarks of their respective holders, our usage does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future and should not be used as a basis for comparison to infer any investment ideas.